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Friday, July 10, 2009

A perilous prognostication: Penry will pass



It was a great weekend to turn off the computer and walk away from the phone. So we did.

Off to higher country we went, escaping the Grand Valley's newly-arrived heat by celebrating the Fourth of July in Crested Butte. Things seemed a bit tamer during the parade down Elk Avenue this year. Not quite as wet, although the Fire Department did continue the tradition of dueling hoses. Even the mad scientists from the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory up in Gothic seemed to have throttled it down a notch with more actual clothing visible under their traditional parade garb of skunk cabbage leaves.

The holiday weekend included a couple of long nights of sleep upstairs in the old Spehar family residence between visits with my aunt. We enjoyed the parade with her as well as fireworks up on the mountain and a long drive into several stretches of backcountry family members have been known to visit for well over a century on foot and horseback and later via motorized conveyance. Not to mention a great afternoon waiting with friends a block or so away for half a hog to roast in a backyard cooker while sipping a cold one or two or three.

What did we miss? Not much that mattered, really.

Somehow we muddled through without 24-7 cable news coverage of the death of Michael Jackson, including the ramp up to memorial services, the battle over control of his estate and the future of his children. (Though, much to my surprise, I stopped by to visit with my mother after the weekly Lions Club lunch on Tuesday to find her fully engaged with the memorial service televised from the Staples Center.)

Given my well known take on things political, it'll be no surprise that the weekend out of touch offered a welcome opportunity to bid “good riddance” to Sarah Palin. The Alaska governor and former vice presidential candidate (new motto “I'm quitting but I'm not a quitter”) can apparently see Russia from her home state but can't get a clear enough view of the Potomac from the frozen north. And she's evidently only recently realized that life in elected office isn't all banquet meals, applause and nice clothes, and includes troublesome responsibilities are well.

Most likely, she's found it's hard to extend your 15 minutes of allotted fame when getting in front of that spotlight involves a commute across a foreign country. Memo to Sarah (with apologies to Timbuk 3): Your future is not so bright that you have to wear shades. So you might brush up on field dressing moose and catching salmon…skills that'll probably come in handy well before the 2012 presidential election cycle.

With the July Fourth holiday in the rear view mirror, there's another big weekend coming up in local politics.

I won't be in the audience, but I'm sure there'll be a crowd at the Mesa County Courthouse tomorrow morning for the much anticipated announcement of Josh Penry's future political plans.

Most on the Colorado political scene seem to be anticipating that Josh will announce tomorrow that he's running for Governor in 2010 instead of re-election as our representative in the Colorado Senate.

Much is being made of a potential primary battle with another sort-of local, Penry's mentor and former boss, ex-Congressman Scott McInnis. The blogosphere is even speculating which of the several former GOP political staffers/operatives Tim Foster has stockpiled over at Mesa State will be running the Penry for Governor Campaign.

Count me as a skeptic who'll be mildly surprised if we're not represented by a Senator Penry for another term. Not that there's not a bigger political office in Penry's future…I'd be amazed if there isn't. And there's nothing wrong with ambition on the part of Republicans as well as Democrats.

Sure, the conservative Kool Aid with which he's been toasted over the past few years tastes good and Bill Ritter is no Dick Lamm or Roy Romer. But you don't post Josh's considerable list of achievements scholastically, athletically or politically without a healthy dose of intelligence and common sense. That'd include considering the long odds of taking on an incumbent and a hard look at recent political trends.

Far better to leave this one to Scott, the one most likely to give Ritter fits in a general election, and continue to build a resume and following for future opportunities. There are worse places than the Senator Minority Leader's office from which to do that.

We'll know for sure in the next 24 hours but my bet is Josh takes a pass on the governor's race and runs for re-election to the Colorado Senate in 2010.

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Prognosticating is perilous when done publicly and it wouldn't be the first time Jim Spehar's been wrong. Your predictions are welcome at jimspehar@bresnan.net.


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